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A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.

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Article
H

Pouillot, R. ; Dufour, Barbara ; Durand, Benoit

VETERINARY RESEARCH

Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Aliments, DERNS, Maisons-Alfort Cedex, France.

2004

Article

In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.
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